Macmillan Learning
At the beginning of the school year, groups of college students were asked to predict a variety of their own social behaviors
(for example, calling their parents, voting in an election). The students reported being 84 percent confident in their self-
predictions. However, they correctly predicted their own behavior only 71 percent of the time. This human tendency is
known as:
overconfidence.
the "I-knew-it-all-along" phenomenon.
instrumental learning.
hindsight bias.