You may have seen a report in the news recently about an Iowa state poll that showed Kamala Harris with a 47% to 44% lead over Donald Trump. The result is considered surprising because Iowa has been considered a āsafeā red state, so that neither campaign has put any resources there. The news reports have been careful to point out that the margin of error for these results is 3.4%. Therefore, the 3% Harris advantage over Trump is within the margin of error, or as we would say, the result is ānot significantā. Your task, should you choose to accept it, is to determine just how close to āsignificantā the result is. Keep in mind the following: the margin of error for the poll is reported to be 3.4%. Assuming this represents a 95% confidence interval, we can state that if the difference in the percentages between the two candidates had been 3.4%, exactly equal to the margin of error, then the results would be significant with a p value exactly equal to .05 (p = .05). But since the difference is less that the margin of error (3% < 3.4%), the resulting p value of the difference must be greater than .05 (p > .05). Do not worry about the sample size. Assume it is large enough so that you donāt have to worry about it. Also, do not worry about the fact the percentages do not add up to 100%, or that neither is 50%, etc. While all of these would be issues for professional pollsters, they need not concern us here. Also, it may be helpful to recall the expression that gives the 95% confidence interval: ļæ½ ļ潚¼.95 = š Ā±1.96š š What is the actual p-value of the difference?