00:01
F of x is lambda to the x, e to the negative lambda, over x factorial, and this is for x being 0, 1, to infinity.
00:11
And what we're gonna do is find the maximum likelihood estimator of lambda.
00:20
So to do that, we're gonna take the likelihood, likelihood of lambda, where we take the product over all the data, from 1 to n to the x i e to the negative lambda over x i factorial um and so uh writing this out we're taking the product of all these lambdas so it's going to be lambda to the sum of the x i's e to the negative n lambda because the bases are all the same so we're adding a bunch of lambdas divided by the product of these x i so we're going to this isn't a huge deal to work with because it's going to be, it's, we're going to get rid of it here momentarily.
01:17
So now to find the maximum, we're going to take the likelihood, or the log of this likelihood.
01:22
And so that's going to give us the natural log of lambda to the sum of the xes, minus.
01:29
Because i'm taking the log of this.
01:30
The log of e is just the exponent.
01:34
So lambda, then we have minus the log of this product.
01:39
Now, now this whole thing using the power, the power rule of logarithms, this sigma xi is going to come right out front like that.
01:55
And now we can take the derivative of this to find the maximum.
02:01
So this gives us the sum of the xis over lambda minus n.
02:08
And this to find the maximum, or the cradle point, we'll set equal to zero.
02:11
So this will become n equals the sum of the x i's over lambda.
02:18
Solving for lambda is going to give us lambda hat equals some of the xes over n, which is just the average.
02:26
There we go.
02:27
So now what we're going to do is let lambda have a prior, have a gamma distribution prior, lowercase p, lambda.
02:44
Which is equal to beta to the alpha over the gamma function of the alpha, and also in the numerator, lambda to the alpha minus 1.
02:55
And this is times e to the negative beta, lambda.
02:58
And this is for alpha and beta, both positive.
03:02
So what we're going to do is find the maximum a posterior estimate of lambda.
03:07
So to do that, we'll find the posterior of lambda, which is proportional to proportional symbol.
03:16
There you go.
03:17
The likelihood times that prior.
03:21
We have the likelihood already...