00:01
In the oscar question, you're given 1 ,000 six -sided dice.
00:07
300 are fair.
00:15
The probability of rolling all sides is equal.
00:19
500 are biased towards a roll of 2, biased, so that the probability to roll 2 equals 50 % or 1 half.
00:38
And the probability of all other rolls is 10%.
00:43
And 200 are also biased but now these are biased toward 6.
00:58
The priority of rolling a 6 is 90 % and the priority of all other rolls is 2 % now we select a die from the pool of dice and roll it 3 times.
01:18
The rolls was 6 to 6 the result 6 to 6.
01:30
It's required to use page inference to calculate the posterior probability to figure out which type of dice you most likely have.
01:41
The first step is to calculate the prior probabilities.
01:47
We call this type to be a and this group b and this group c.
01:55
The probability of the dice to be fair from group a is just 300 divided by 1 ,000...