00:01
So we're told all this information.
00:02
There's a new training program for this company, and that if the people attend the training, the probability they're getting their quotes, meaning their quotes, given training 0 .9.
00:13
Probably the meaning the quote, not doing the training, so no training is 0 .65.
00:17
40 % of the people are doing their training.
00:20
And we want to find the probability of someone doing the training given the method quote.
00:25
This is a conditional probability, so we can use the conditional probability formula, which is going to be the probability of training, intercept quote, divided by the probability of quote.
00:43
Okay, well, we don't know either one of these formulas.
00:46
First thing i want you all notice, what happens if we swap the condition? probability of quotes, given training.
00:57
Well, this formula is going to be, still has the probability of training, intersect quotes, because this is just an intersection of those two, divided by the probability of training.
01:11
And if we solve for the intersection, we get probability of training times the probability of quote given training.
01:26
That equals our intersection.
01:34
And the good thing is we know the probability of training and we know the probability of quote given training.
01:43
So we know that this probability of training was 0 .4 times the probability of quote given training was 0 .9.
01:54
So we can solve for this and get that this was 0 .36.
02:03
So we can replace the numerator with what's in blue.
02:07
So we got the numerator to be 0 .36.
02:15
Training, intersect, quote.
02:19
So the next thing we just need, the last thing we need is the denominator.
02:24
From here, we can use the base rule.
02:26
I like to look at it as a tree, because to me it makes more sense we look at as a tree.
02:31
So i'm talking about we have some employee.
02:35
Just call a person...