Forecasting with a Moving Average: For a given time series of sales, the training period consists of 50 months. The first 5 months of data are shown below: Monthly Sales Sept 98 27 Oct 98 31 Nov 98 58 Dec 98 63 Jan 99 59 a) Compute the sales forecast for January 1999 based on a moving average model with span w=4. (b) Compute the forecast error for the above forecast.
Added by Michael C.
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This means we will average the sales from the previous 4 months (September 1998 to December 1998). Moving Average for January 1999 = (27 + 31 + 58 + 63) / 4 Now, let's calculate the forecast error. The forecast error is the difference between the actual sales Show more…
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Using simple moving averages and the following time series data, respond to each of the items. Period Demand 1 72 2 60 3 27 4 52 5 26 6 46 7 52 8 28 9 53 10 50 11 57 12 87 13 22 14 56 b and c. Compute all possible forecasts using a four-period & eight-period simple moving average model. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) d. Compute the MADs for each moving average forecast. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) e. Which forecast has less error?
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