1. Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two moving average forecasting methods to see which one was better over this period. Month Actual Jan 120 Feb 140 March 160 April 180 May 190 June 210 July 170 August 190 September 220 a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average and calculate MAD for the forecasts. b. Forecast May through September using a four-month moving average and calculate MAD for the forecasts.
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67 July: (180 + 190 + 210) / 3 = 193.33 August: (190 + 210 + 170) / 3 = 190 September: (210 + 170 + 190) / 3 = 190 Now, we will calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for the three-month moving average forecasts: MAD = (|180 - 140| + |190 - 160| + |210 - Show more…
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Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this period. MONTH ACTUAL January 110 February 130 March 150 April 170 May 160 June 180 July 140 August 130 September 140 A. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average. B. Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3 to estimate April through September, using the average of January through March as initial forecast for April. C. Use MAD to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six-month period.
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Historical demand for the product is: Month Demand January 12 February 11 March 15 April 12 May 16 June 15 Using Weighted average with weights of 60% for last, 30% second last, and 10% for the third last month, find the July forecast. Weighted Forecast = Using a sample three-month moving average, find the July forecast. Moving Average Forecast = If the July demand is 17, Using Weighted average with weights of 60% for last, 30% second last, and 10% for the third last month, find the August forecast. Weighted Forecast = Using a sample three-month moving average, find the August forecast. Moving Average Forecast =
Sri K.
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