00:01
So in this question, we draw, so we have an urn, which contains seven white and three black balls.
00:11
And first, we take two balls from the urn, and x is the number of white balls.
00:23
And then, without replacement, we take another one ball, and y is the number of white balls.
00:38
So first of all, we want to compute the joint distribution of x and y.
00:44
So the probability that x equals 0 is going to be the probability of choosing two blackballs, which is going to be 3 tenths times 2 9ths, which is 6 over 90, which is 1 over 15.
01:04
The probability that x is equal to 1 is going to be, so you can either choose it first or second, so there are 2nd.
01:12
Two ways round of doing it.
01:15
And then it'll be three over ten to choose a black ball first, and then seven over nine to choose the white ball second.
01:30
But if it was the other way round, it would be seven over ten, and then three over nine.
01:34
And since you're multiplying them together, we can just do it this way.
01:39
So this gives us six times seven over 90.
01:43
But six over 90 is one over 15 now.
01:48
And the probability that x equals 2, well it's the only other possibility, which means it must be the complement of these two.
01:55
So that's going to be 1 minus 8 over 15, which is 7 over 15.
02:01
Now, y can either be 0 or 1.
02:06
So the probability that y equals 0, given that x equals a little x, is going to be, so if you take out x white balls, then there's going to be 7.
02:20
Minus x white balls remaining.
02:23
So the probability of picking out a black ball is going to be 3 over 8, in this case.
02:34
The probability that y equals 1 given that x is equal to x.
02:38
Sorry, so this is going to be, so if we pick out x white balls, that means we pick out two minus x black balls.
02:50
So the probability of picking out a blackball is going to be 3 minus 2 minus x.
02:58
So that's 1 plus x over 8.
03:09
And the probability that y equals 1 given x equals x is just going to be the complement of this.
03:14
So that's 7 minus x over 8.
03:20
So now we can write down the joint distribution.
03:24
So if we have y going down this way 01, x going over here, 012, and then the joint distribution, property x equals x, and y equals y is going in this way.
03:40
Let's see what this is going to be.
03:47
So y equals 0 given x equals 0 is 1 8th.
03:52
The probability that x equals 0 is 115th.
03:56
So we multiply those together to get 1 over 120.
04:02
The probability that y equals 0 given x equals 1 is 1 quarter.
04:06
Probability that x equals 1 is 7 over 15, so we get 7 over 60.
04:14
Y equals 0 given x equals 2 is 3 8th, and 3 8th times 7 over 15 is going to be 1 8th times 7 over 5, which is 7 over 8 times 5, 7 over 40.
04:30
And then y equals 1.
04:35
So we're going to have, so if x equals 0, we've got 7.
04:38
And we need to multiply that by one -fifteenth.
04:42
So that's 7 over 8 times 15, which is 7 over 120.
04:49
Y equals 1, x equals 1.
04:51
We've got 3 quarters times 7 over 15.
04:56
So that's 7 over 5 times 4, which is 7 over 20.
05:06
And then lastly we're going to have 5 eighths times 7 over 15.
05:13
So that's 7 over 3 times 8, which is 7 over 24.
05:22
So let's just check that these all add up...