Inductive Arguments: Carefully consider the following inductive argument passages. Identify the type of inductive argument it is, and then apply the appropriate criteria to evaluate the argument (e.g., is the sample large enough? has any relevant information been overlooked? etc.) and briefly answer the questions posed. The idea here is to give a rough estimate of how strong you think the argument is: Very Weak, Weak, Acceptable, Fairly Strong, Very Strong, and explain the reasons why by thinking about the relevant evaluative criteria. The questions are meant to point you in the right direction.
1. A few years ago, Ann Landers asked the woman readers of her column to send her a card stating which they would prefer: "to be held closely and treated tenderly" or to have sex. Of the ninety thousand women who responded, 72% said they would prefer the former. She concluded that most women preferred being held close and treated tenderly to having sex. How strong is this inductive generalization? What do you think about how the question was posed?
2. Fifty percent of those who voted in the 1984 federal election voted for a Conservative candidate, presumably because they wanted a Conservative government. Many people concluded from this that 50% of all Canadians wanted a Conservative government. Is this a reasonable conclusion?
3. A medical study from 1992 established that a diet high in marshmallows increases a person's risk of senility and Alzheimer's by as much as 40%. The study, conducted over five years, began with roughly 500 alligators located in two distinct alligator farms in the Louisiana Bayou (they are harvested for their meat and their hides). The distinct populations of alligators were treated as a typical experimental group/control group division. The control group received normal alligator food exclusively (usually chicken). The experimental group received, in addition to chicken, a lot of marshmallows (alligators really like marshmallows and they float in water, so we can confirm that they eat them). All progeny were rolled into the study and, thus, it involved thousands of individual alligators by the time the study was concluded. It was observed that there was 40% more senility and Alzheimer's in the experimental group than the control group (as measured by memory tests in a familiar maze with food as an incentive). With respect to the original study, how strong is the conclusion reached about the effects of marshmallows on the alligators? How is this conclusion extended to humans? And how secure is this latter generalization?
4. Tony's first car was a Toyota. It was a very good car. His next car was also a Toyota, and he had very few problems with it. So, when his friend Kate needed a new car, he recommended a Toyota. Kate took Tony's advice and bought a Toyota, which she is still driving seven years later. It has had only minor repairs in the course of tune-ups. Tony concludes that the Toyota is an excellent car and decides never to drive any other brand of car. Is this good reasoning on Tony's part? Why? Or why not?