The following two models have been suggested for representing some quarterly data with underlying seasonality. Model 1 Y_t = α Y_{t-4} + e_t Model 2 Y_t = β e_{t-4} + e_t where e_t is a white noise process in each case. (i) Determine the autocorrelation function for each model. [4] The observed quarterly data is used to calculate the sample autocorrelation. (ii) State the features of the sample autocorrelation that would lead you to prefer Model 1. [1] [Total 5]
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For Model 1: The autocorrelation function is given by: Ļ(h) = Corr(Yt, Yt-h) = Cov(GYi_4 + e1, GYi_4 + e1-h) / Var(Y) = Cov(GYi_4, GYi_4-h) / Var(Y) = G^2 Cov(Yi_4, Yi_4-h) / Var(Y) = G^2 Ļ(h) Show moreā¦
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The following is the list of MAD statistics for each of the four models you have estimated from time-series data: Model MAD MSFE Linear Trend 1.38 22.9 Quadratic Trend 1.22 29.8 Linear Trend with Seasonality 1.39 25.5 Quadratic Trend with Seasonality 1.71 28.1 If it is important to avoid large errors, the most appropriate model is Select one: quadratic trend. linear trend. linear trend with seasonality. quadratic trend with seasonality.
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