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(10 pts) There is an important perspective to communicate regarding the taking of "samples from a population". We imagine that there is a theoretical "population" of all possible outcomes of (for example) 10 coin flips, with respective probabilities for each possible outcome, and an associated "true" mean and "true" standard deviation. However, when we flip 10 coins, we don't see the population as a whole... we only see one sample from the population. If we take LOTS of samples, then the average number of heads should begin to converge to the "true" mean, and the standard deviation of our samples should begin to converge to the "true" standard deviation. Of course, the mean should be half as many heads as coin flips (5 in this case), if we have an honest coin. But, then, one shouldn't be too surprised if any one sample comes up with 6, 7, or even 8 heads. This is because the standard deviation is quite large, relatively speaking, since the number of flips is very modest. Comment on trends you see in your data which relate to these principles. C. (5 pts) As hinted in the introduction, there is a very important rule of thumb for statistical processes that you should learn: the size of the fluctuations is proportional to the SQUARE ROOT of the number of data points. In this case, it turns out that the theoretical "true" standard deviation for coin flips is half of the square root of the number of flips F, like so:

          (10 pts) There is an important perspective to communicate regarding the taking of "samples from a population". We imagine that there is a theoretical "population" of all possible outcomes of (for example) 10 coin flips, with respective probabilities for each possible outcome, and an associated "true" mean and "true" standard deviation. However, when we flip 10 coins, we don't see the population as a whole... we only see one sample from the population. If we take LOTS of samples, then the average number of heads should begin to converge to the "true" mean, and the standard deviation of our samples should begin to converge to the "true" standard deviation. Of course, the mean should be half as many heads as coin flips (5 in this case), if we have an honest coin. But, then, one shouldn't be too surprised if any one sample comes up with 6, 7, or even 8 heads. This is because the standard deviation is quite large, relatively speaking, since the number of flips is very modest. Comment on trends you see in your data which relate to these principles.

C. (5 pts) As hinted in the introduction, there is a very important rule of thumb for statistical processes that you should learn: the size of the fluctuations is proportional to the SQUARE ROOT of the number of data points. In this case, it turns out that the theoretical "true" standard deviation for coin flips is half of the square root of the number of flips F, like so:
        
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(10 pts) There is an important perspective to communicate regarding the taking of "samples from a population". We imagine that there is a theoretical "population" of all possible outcomes of (for example) 10 coin flips, with respective probabilities for each possible outcome, and an associated "true" mean and "true" standard deviation. However, when we flip 10 coins, we don't see the population as a whole... we only see one sample from the population. If we take LOTS of samples, then the average number of heads should begin to converge to the "true" mean, and the standard deviation of our samples should begin to converge to the "true" standard deviation. Of course, the mean should be half as many heads as coin flips (5 in this case), if we have an honest coin. But, then, one shouldn't be too surprised if any one sample comes up with 6, 7, or even 8 heads. This is because the standard deviation is quite large, relatively speaking, since the number of flips is very modest. Comment on trends you see in your data which relate to these principles.

C. (5 pts) As hinted in the introduction, there is a very important rule of thumb for statistical processes that you should learn: the size of the fluctuations is proportional to the SQUARE ROOT of the number of data points. In this case, it turns out that the theoretical "true" standard deviation for coin flips is half of the square root of the number of flips F, like so:

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Biology for AP Courses
Biology for AP Courses
Julianne Zedalis, John Eggebrecht
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There is an important perspective to communicate regarding the taking of "samples from a population." We imagine that there is a theoretical population of all possible outcomes of (for example, 10 coin flips, with respective probabilities for each possible outcome, and an associated true mean and true standard deviation. However, when we flip 10 coins, we don't see the population as a whole... we only see one sample from the population. If we take LOTS of samples, then the average number of heads should begin to converge to the true mean, and the standard deviation of our samples should begin to converge to the true standard deviation. Of course, the mean should be half as many heads as coin flips 5 in this case if we have an honest coin. But then, one shouldn't be too surprised if any one sample comes up with 6, 7, or even 8 heads. This is because the standard deviation is quite large, relatively speaking, since the number of flips is very modest. Comment on trends you see in your data which relate to these principles. As hinted in the introduction, there is a very important rule of thumb for statistical processes that you should learn: the size of the fluctuations is proportional to the SQUARE ROOT of the number of data points. In this case, it turns out that the theoretical true standard deviation for coin flips is half of the square root of the number of flips F, like so.
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just-keep-flipping-have-you-ever-wondered-how-fair-coin-is-perhaps-ifyou-flipped-coin-enough-times-you-d-get-20-heads-in-tow-or-30-probably-not-but-in-chapter-20_-discuss-enors-testing-and-w-81316

Just Keep Flipping Have you ever wondered how fair a coin is? Perhaps if you flipped a coin enough times, you'd get 20 heads in a row. Or 30? Probably not. But in Chapter 20, we discuss errors in testing. And we learned that Type I errors, with a significance level of 5%, will generally happen ... 5% of the time. That means that if you're willing to keep trying, you're bound to mess up eventually. Let's try to do just that! 1. First, examine when we would reject fairness for flipping a coin 100 times. We will be simulating 100 coin flips and will run a 2-sided test to determine if the coin is unfair. • What are the null and alternate hypotheses? • What is the standard deviation for this test? • What is the critical value for this test? Or, said differently, what z-score corresponds to a 5% significance level, at which point we reject H₀? • Using the standard deviation and the critical value, calculate how many (or how few) times you would have to flip heads to reject the H₀. 2. Now simulate 100 coin flips by using the Random Binomial generator on your favorite technology tool. Use n = 1, p = 0.5 and x = 100. You should generate a list of 100 0's and 1's. Sum the list and you will find the simulated percentage of "heads". Repeat this process 40 times and graph the results. 3. Examining your graph, did you find an extreme result? Extreme enough to reject the fairness of your coin? Given that we were using a 5% significance level, how many rejections did you expect to get? What does tell you about the problem with running significance tests over and over again?

Dominador T.

a-fair-coin-is-flipped-160-times-if-x-is-the-number-of-heads-then-the-distribution-of-x-can-be-approximated-with-a-normal-distribution-n-80-63-where-the-mean-is-80-and-standard-deviation-a-i-85435

A fair coin is flipped 160 times. If X is the number of heads, then the distribution of X can be approximated with a normal distribution, N(80, 6.3), where the mean (μ) is 80 and standard deviation (σ) is 6.3. Using this approximation, find the probability of flipping 83, 84, or 85 heads. You may use the portion of the Standard Normal Table below. z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517 0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879 0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224 0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549 0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852 0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133 0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389 Round the final answer to two decimal places.

Supreeta N.

as-we-discussed-during-lecture-according-to-the-central-limit-theorem-when-the-success-failure-conditions-are-met-ie-np-10and-n1-p-10-we-expect-that-sample-proportion-will-approximately-foll-2556

As we discussed during the lecture, according to the Central Limit Theorem, when the success-failure conditions are met, i.e. np > 10 and n(1-p) > 10, we expect that the sample proportion will approximately follow a normal distribution with a mean p (the true population proportion) and a standard deviation sqrt(p*(1-p)). Now let's get your feet wet and verify this with a real simulation! Choose a random process with a known p (for example, flip a fair coin and the probability of getting heads is 50%, or roll a dice and the probability of getting less than 3 is 1/3), and complete the following tasks: 1. Perform a simulation of at least 100 samples. In each sample, determine your sample size n (i.e. how many times you will flip the coin before estimating the probability of getting heads) such that the success-failure conditions are satisfied. 2. Record all the sample proportions in a spreadsheet (Google Sheets, Excel, or CSV file, or a TXT file). 3. Plot a histogram of all the sample proportions to verify its nearly bell shape. 4. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of all the sample proportions (Google Sheets, Excel, or R can help you with the calculation easily). 5. Verify that the mean and standard deviation from your simulation are close to those according to the Central Limit Theorem. Documents to submit: a. Your data - a link to a Google spreadsheet or a CSV/TXT/Excel file. b. A PDF file that describes your simulation process, specifies your p, n, and number of samples, shows the histogram, and shows the results for tasks 4 and 5. Note: Please present your results clearly and submit both Document a and Document b. No partial points will be given for the bonus assignment if any document is missing or any result is incorrect or incomplete.

Lucas F.


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Transcript

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00:02 Good day everyone.
00:04 So here for our solution for this question for number one for a we have our h -o -p which is equals to 0 .5 we have our h -a that is p not equal to 0 .5 and for b we have the standard evasion and we have equal to the square root so we have 0 .5 times 0 .5 divided by 100.
00:42 So this would be equal to 0 .05.
00:46 Now for part c, for the critical values, we have 0 .05, which are negative 1 .96.
01:02 And also we have 1 .96...
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