00:01
Use simple exponential smoothing, s with an alpha, 0 .4, to forecast the period.
00:09
Great.
00:10
So here's how this works.
00:14
We take our forecasted value.
00:19
We'll say t plus 1 is equal to the alpha times the actual value of the previous time.
00:28
This is the actual value.
00:33
Plus 1 minus alpha times the forecasted previous value.
00:40
So to do this, so that means to get the, so for example, we're going to get this forecasted value first, and then we kind of iterate from there.
00:49
So the first thing will be, let's say f2 is equal to the alpha, 0 .4, times the actual value before, which would be 50, plus 0 .6, because that's 1 minus 0 .4, times the forecasted previous value.
01:09
So we have to start with 50...