00:01
So let's draw the phillips curve first.
00:02
As inflation, the question says, the phillips curve is a relationship between unemployment and inflation, right? which is usually drawn downwards sloping like this.
00:14
The idea being that when unemployment is low, inflation is high, and vice versa.
00:18
It's also usually drawn with some natural level of unemployment, you stir at which inflation, does not deviate from expectations, right? this is consistent with expected inflation.
00:40
If unemployment falls, that means the economy is going to heat up more than expected.
00:46
And if unemployment rises, it means that the economy will cool off in terms of inflation more than expected.
00:55
So this point on the phillips curve is expected inflation.
01:00
And natural level of output.
01:03
That's the general form of the phillips curve.
01:05
Now, people have debated over what form expectations take, but that's neither here nor there.
01:11
So what's going to happen is that expected inflation is going up.
01:16
So this expected inflation is going up...