00:01
So here we are talking about what does the average one look like? what is the range of outcomes? and you don't have to be an expert in macroeconomic history to pin this down exactly, because the options are a little bit strange.
00:19
So we have minus 10 to minus 15 percent.
00:24
I'm rounding a little bit.
00:25
We have minus 0 .2 to minus 4 percent.
00:29
For d, c, we have minus 15 to minus 20 percent.
00:36
And for d, we have minus 5 percent to minus 10 percent.
00:42
So look at these three outcomes.
00:46
These three outcomes are all similar, right? they all imply that even moderate recessions, right, were very bad, were very, very bad, right? in this case, the numbers i'm particularly looking at are these numbers, right? for a, it would say every recession was at least 10 percent...