Year
Demand
1
12
2
14
3
16
4
18
5
20
6
24
1) What is the forecast value for year 5 based on a 3-year simple moving average?
14
16
18
20
2) What is the forecast value for year 6 based on a 3-year weighted moving average in which demand in the most recent year is given a weight of 3 and demand in the other 2 years is each given a weight of 2?
14.29
16.29
18.29
20.29
3) Assume the last period's forecast for year 1 demand is 10 to begin the procedure. What is the forecasted value for year 3 for smoothing constant a=0.30?
10.60
11.62
12.93
14.45
4) What is the MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) for the exponential smoothing method (a=0.30)?
4.27
4.38
4.71
9.42
5) Which one is the best forecasting method (simple moving average, weighted moving average, or exponential smoothing)?
Simple moving average
Weighted moving average
Exponential smoothing
None of the above