Chapter Questions
Under what circumstances is the use of qualitative forecasting techniques appropriate?
Outline the steps involved in undertaking a survey to collect forecast estimates from individuals. Outline the advantages and disadvantages of using groups, as opposed to individuals, to provide forecasts.
What are the steps normally applied when undertaking a Delphi survey? What are some of the variants of this method?
How is the nominal group technique (NGT) different from the Delphi method?
Outline the 'jury of expert opinion' method. How does this differ from the Delphi method?
A company offering eco-tourism adventures wishes to forecast the numbers of annual tourists of various types coming to a region five years from now, and chooses the Delphi method to develop its forecasts.(a) Explain how a panel of appropriate experts could be selected.(b) Suggest how the information given to the panel and the questions could be framed.(c) How many rounds of data collection would you expect to undertake? Discuss how these would proceed.
The management of a coal-fired electricity generation station is concerned that new technology to reduce carbon dioxide emissions will be required to offset emissions, and measures such as purchase of carbon credits will be required if the national government signs up to the Kyoto Protocol. The severity of adjustment for the company will depend on the extent of reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions agreed to by the national government. Explain how scenario forecasting could be used to aid decisionmaking by the company.
A company engaged in sugar refining and export wishes to make medium-term projections of international sugar prices. Suggest a method that could be used to make these forecasts.