Question

Mistaken poll A local TV station conducted a "PulsePoll" about the upcoming mayoral election. Evening news viewers were invited to text in their votes, with the results to be announced on the late-night news. Based on the texts, the station predicted that Amabo would win the election with $52 \%$ of the vote. They were wrong: Amabo lost, getting only $46 \%$ of the vote. Do you think the station's faulty prediction is more likely to be a result of bias or sampling error? Explain.

Name: Problem 24, Chapter 11: Stats Data and Models
Uploaded: 2022-11-02T23:57:27-08:00
Duration: 1 min 32 s
Channel: James Kiss

   Mistaken poll A local TV station conducted a "PulsePoll" about the upcoming mayoral election. Evening news viewers were invited to text in their votes, with the results to be announced on the late-night news. Based on the texts, the station predicted that Amabo would win the election with $52 \%$ of the vote. They were wrong: Amabo lost, getting only $46 \%$ of the vote. Do you think the station's faulty prediction is more likely to be a result of bias or sampling error? Explain.

Stats Data and Models

Richard D. De Veaux,… 4th Edition

Chapter 11, Problem 24

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Solved by Expert James Kiss

11/02/2022

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The viewers were invited to text in their votes, and based on these texts, the station predicted that Amabo would win the election with $52 \%$ of the vote. Show more…

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Mistaken poll A local TV station conducted a "PulsePoll" about the upcoming mayoral election. Evening news viewers were invited to text in their votes, with the results to be announced on the late-night news. Based on the texts, the station predicted that Amabo would win the election with $52 \%$ of the vote. They were wrong: Amabo lost, getting only $46 \%$ of the vote. Do you think the station's faulty prediction is more likely to be a result of bias or sampling error? Explain.

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Key Concepts

Sampling Error

Sampling error refers to the natural variability that occurs by chance when a random sample is taken from a population. It can lead to differences between the sample statistic and the true population parameter, but it is typically random and diminishes with larger sample sizes. In surveys or polls, sampling error is expected when the sample is drawn randomly and represents the population accurately, even though fluctuations may occur due to chance.

Bias

Bias, in the context of statistics and polling, is a systematic error that occurs when the process of collecting data leads to results that deviate in a non-random way from the true population value. This can happen when certain groups are overrepresented or underrepresented in the sample. A common form of bias is self-selection bias, where the individuals who choose to participate differ significantly from those who do not, skewing the results in a way that does not reflect the overall population.

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