00:01
So here we're talking about business cycles, right? and the way that i would try to understand this is by drawing an aggregate demand, aggregate supply model.
00:09
So imagine that we have a story about inflation and output.
00:13
And we see that let's suppose that we started at some point, which is 5 % inflation, and we had, say, gdp.
00:23
So now what we have is inflation is going down, unemployment is going up, which means that output is going down, right? output is falling here.
00:34
So we are going to a point that is over here, for example.
00:39
So this might be, say, 6 % you, this might be 7 % you.
00:44
Because remember, unemployment and output move in opposite directions.
00:51
The more we're producing, the more workers we need.
00:56
So now you might say, look, these things fit along an aggregate supply curve.
01:01
So one way that we could explain this is to have a shift in aggregate demand, right? so a shift, a negative shift in aggregate demand is a good explanation that lowers inflation and also increases unemployment.
01:19
So let's go through...