(Q1) -15 points total
Sennheiser is considering a project that will cost $100 million and will generate expected free cash flows of $40 million per year for three years. The interest rate is 12 percent. After discussions with the marketing department, you learn that there is a 20 percent chance of high demand, with future free cash flows of $60 million per year. There is a 50 percent chance of average demand, with free cash flows of $50 million per year. If demand is low due to new Covid variants (a 30 percent chance), free cash flows will be only $10 million per year. Suppose this project has an investment timing option, and it can be delayed for a year. After one year you will know whether or not the demand will be low due to new Covid variants. The cost will still be $100 million at the end of the year, and the cash flows for the scenarios will still last three years. However, you will know the level of demand, and will implement the project only if it adds value to the company. What is the expected NPV of this project with the investment timing option? What is the incremental value of the investment timing option?
(To receive full credit, show the calculations below)
High 20,60=
Average 50,50=
Low 30,10=
Expected NPV with investment delay =
Incremental value of investment timing option:
Should you: (a) implement project now; (b) wait 1 year; or (c) forego project altogether (choose one)?