00:01
Here we have some data that comes from alligators.
00:03
We're looking at their length and their weight.
00:07
It's right here, here.
00:09
And we're told to create a linear model for the data and we want to see how accurate is.
00:14
And then we're going to make a stronger predictive model.
00:17
And we're going to explain why this is a better model.
00:21
So, go and do that.
00:21
So the first thing we do whenever we're making a model, if it's two, there's a, it's got two variables.
00:29
It's plot x, x, y.
00:31
So here's the first thing we do.
00:31
Is the length, the length is the x to the width here and the y, or nothing that's pardon the weight.
00:43
And you can see, just by looking at you can see it's probably not linear, but we're gonna go ahead and do that anyway.
00:50
So what i did for this exercise is i used desmos because it helps.
00:56
It's nice to get a picture of the data.
01:00
So you take the data, fit a line to it, you put the data into the, you just use the variables or the values in the data set or the, in your table, and you do y1 -tilda and x1 plus b.
01:16
You get this line, and you can see it's, yes, it's got a kind of a moderate, really strong linear correlation.
01:25
675, but as you're looking at the data, you can see like that's not a line.
01:29
If it was kind of just cloudy, right? if it was kind of cloudy like this, you know, cloudy all the other place.
01:37
That'd be one thing.
01:38
But we can pretty clearly see, there's something else going on here.
01:47
So what i did, i'm going to note this number, is the coefficient of determination .3691.
01:55
And this is r squared for it.
02:04
Right.
02:18
So then what i did to do the other model, i chose this, this is an exponential function.
02:31
I chose this because it's, the e, the number e appears in nature kind of all over the place, so i figured it would be a good spot to use it.
02:44
So c times e to the kx plus b.
02:49
So we get this model then, this nice little exponential curve.
03:02
And you know what now i'm looking at this, we probably wouldn't have the b because we were anticipating for, because this would mean to have a negative weight.
03:15
So you know, let me pause this.
03:17
Let me do this...