00:03
So to calculate the price of the arrow debut security that pays $1 in the state where the value of the market portfolio is equal to $2, we need to find the corresponding put option price for that state.
00:19
So the put option price for a strike price is $2.
00:48
Since the arrow debut security pays $1 in that state, its price will be the same as the put price option which is $0 .1.
00:58
Therefore the price of the arrow debut security is $0 .1.
01:24
So next is to find the risk neutral probability of a state which can be calculated by arrow debut security price for that state by sum of all debut of that state by sum of all arrow debut security prices.
02:52
So in this case, the price of arrow debut security where the value of the market portfolio is equal to $0 .1.
03:10
So the price of arrow debut security for $2 is equal to $0 .1.
03:31
Sum of the debut security prices is $0 .1 plus $0 .6 plus $1 .2 plus $2 .1 which is equal to $4.
03:53
So the risk neutral probability of this state can be calculated as risk neutral probability is equal to arrow debut security price sum of all arrow debut security prices which is equal to $0 .1 divided by $4 equals to 0 .025.
05:12
So the risk neutral probability of the state where the value of the market portfolio is equal to $2 is approximately 0 .025...